When assumptions drift, confidence erodes
Assumed stability
Most predictive systems are developed under expectations of stability. Data arrives in predictable forms, relationships between signals remain consistent, and operating context changes slowly.
Environmental drift
In live systems, data quality fluctuates, signals interact across multiple sources, and behaviour adjusts in ways models were never calibrated to expect.
False confidence
Despite shifting conditions, many systems continue producing confident outputs. Predictions keep running and the numbers still appear precise, even as the connection between those outputs and reality gradually weakens.







